Wednesday, April 9, 2014

List of State Mottos That Make Sense

A List of State Mottos That Make Sense

Alabama - Audemus jura nostra defendere - We Dare Defend Our Rights
California - Eureka 
Florida - In God We Trust
Kentucky - United We Stand, Divided We Fall
Massachusetts - Ense petit placidam sub libertate quietem - By The Sword We Seek Peace, But Peace Only Under Liberty
Michigan - Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam circumspice - If You Seek A Pleasant Peninsula, Look About You
MinnesotaL'Étoile du Nord - The Star Of The North
Mississippi - Virtute et armis - By Valor And Arms
New Hampshire - Live Free Or Die
New Jersey - Liberty And Prosperity
New York - Excelsior - Ever Upward
Oklahoma - Labor omnia vincit - Labor Conquers All Things
Oregon - Alis volat propriis - She Flies With Her Own Wings
Tennessee - Agriculture And Commerce
Texas - Friendship
Vermont - Freedom And Unity


And now a list of state mottos that don't make sense to me:

Arizona - Ditat Deus - God Enriches
Colorado - Nil sin numine - Nothing Without Providence
Connecticut - Qui transtulit sustinet - He Who Transplanted Sustains
Georgia - Wisdom, Justice, Moderation
Louisiana - Union, Justice and Conficence
Maine - Dirigo - I Lead
Montana - Oro y plata - Gold And Silver
Nevada - All For Our Country
New Mexico - Crescit eundo - It Grows As It Goes
Washington - Al-ki - By And By

The rest? I know not enough to pass judgement.

But these 10 states, what a wonderful opportunity you have, to pick a new motto that is alluring and fitting. In 1987 Oregon changed from the bland Civil War-referential 'The Union' to the beautiful and fitting Alis volat propriis. 

Louisiana -- a state with a unique, storied, and long history has a motto that has no significance and came out of thin air in 1981? ... come on. (Hint: try something in french this time)

Nevada, all you have to do is steal Montana's motto, it makes more sense for you.

The rest, get on it.


Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Looking for a Better Way to Get Up Out of Bed Instead of Getting on the Internet and Checking a New Hit-Me, Get Up


How far we've come in 5 years. Still this one's worth a full watch through, something so simple and delightful to the way its done.
Happy Tuesday.

Monday, April 7, 2014

Water Water Everywhere


Perhaps its the nice weather making me cruise around more on my bike, but the Portland Water District issue has gone from 'I hear rumblings of a ballot initiative' to full-blown 'My God, the lawn signs are everywhere!'.
It could also be that we're now just 43 days away from the May 20th ballot.

My intent in this post is not so much to be political but to use this issue-of-the-moment as a demonstration of the way I think about a lot of issues... and also, hopefully, to demistify what has become a complicated mess.

A lot of the arguments you hear are something like: "$X of water funds wasted on pet project Y" -or-"Rates set to rise X% next year, stop the rate increases" 

Both of these points are examples of a micro-focus perspective. We are talking about who controls ALL of the city's supply and waste-water infrastructure, some $15 billion dollars worth of assets. Compared to this grand scale, what the rate increase is next year or who mis-spent a few million dollars 3-years ago is simply small potatoes.

So lets zoom out and see what the proposed change to a Portland Public Water District really means. 

Currently: The Portland Water Bureau (PWB) is a part of the municipal government and is overseen by the elected members of the city council. The city's Bureau of Environmental Services controls wastewater treatment. PWB sells water wholesale to Tigard, Tualtin, and Beaverton.

Proposed: A Portland Public Water District (PPWD) is overseen by an elected but unpaid board of directors representing different zones of the city, and would control water supply and wastewater treatment.

Functionally there are a few differences. 
Separating the water board from the city council allows it to act independently. The independence of the board could be used to: increase rates; decrease rates; fund water-saving education programs; zealously protect the water supply in opposition to other city projects; fund a celebration of National Ice Cream month on July 19th; zealously guard corporate water interests in opposition to city priorities. Thus the change to an independent board is a neutral change in function, it can cut either way.

City Council members are highly visible and accountable... for everything all at once, you can't simultaneously vote for Dan Saltzman because you like his youth projects and against Dan Saltzman because you disagree with him on water policy. You only get one vote.
With the PPWD board you would be able to vote for candidates with a single issue frame -- in theory. In reality, that far down the ballot, neither you nor I would have heard of any of the candidates or know enough about 'the issues' and 'their stance' to make an informed decision; PPWD board members would be largely invisible. 

Where does the PPWD initiative come from? It is financed by the largest industrial users of water in the system. PPWD supporters often talk of taming rate increases so its not a stretch of the imagination to predict that a newly elected PPWD board would cut rates and necessarily cut spending.  

To add to the confusion there is a proposed People's Water Trust which is entirely unrelated to pipes and infrastructure. The proposed trust names present and future residents and local ecologies of Portland as beneficiaries of the trust (which includes all water resources). The City of Portland is named trustee and is charged with
  • Providing water equitably and affordably
  • Protecting trust assets through policy and legal actions
  • Commissioning independent audits
  • Avoiding conflicts of interest
  • Ensuring transparency and public involvement
  • Avoiding privatization 
  • Demonstrating fulfillment of the above


So the debate over a Public Water District appears to be simple case of a few corporations with local facilities and huge water bills stirring a ruckus in order to lower their own water bills.

But lets zoom out once again and see that whats going on here in Portland is actually a symptom of a much larger national issue. 



Cities across the nation have aging water and sewer systems that are not only incompletely mapped but also past design-life, failing, and failing to protect our waterways from sewage-laden stormwater runoff.[1-A] [1-B] [1-C]

A huge amount of money (capital) is needed to repair and maintain our water systems. It is a daunting prospect, one which many cities have responded to by playing the avoid-and-ignore card. But as we see avoiding the necessary spending now only increases the infrastructure deficit. 

We know that putting off needed infrastructure spending actually increases total costs. [3] 

Another cost pressure on municipalities is the implementation of Phase II of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) as part of the federal Clean Water Act. In brief the EPA is coaxing cities to do more to clean up stormwater runoff. 

How does Portland measure up? Its infrastructure is commensurate to the city's age, which is to say much or it is ~80 years old. Projects of the 21st century have soberly acknowledged the need for better asset management and runoff control. 
The Big Pipe was completed in 2011, and bioswales continue to sprout all over the city. Sewage overflows into the Willamette and Columbia Rivers have been reduced from the rate of 50/yr to ~3/yr. Comparably sized metro areas like St. Louis, San Diego and Baltimore have only begun planning or recently started runoff reduction plans. 
In 2004 the PWB formed an Asset Management Group that worked to get its house in order enough to identify deficiencies in data gathering and management of its infrastructure. In '07 PWB developed an Asset Management Charter and committed itself to best practices in the field of asset management to optimize long term cost. These programs alone place Portland ahead of many other cities in the country. [4]

Still, routine maintenance suffers and the PWB has not followed through on many of its plans from '07.[4]

Rates have increased mostly because of increasing payments to service debt related to construction of The Big Pipe. PWB now spends 32% of its revenue servicing its debt, up from 18% in '07. [4]

By zooming out twice from day-to-day muck slinging we have gained the perspective to see the big picture: water rates are going up nationwide to pay for overdue maintenance and systems to protect our waterways from urban pollutants. 
Rates have gone up in Portland because we have already completed our stormwater runoff reduction plan and are starting to deal with antiquated pipes in need of replacement. This puts our city ahead of the curve, other cities will face the same issues and will also have to raise rates. In short we're doing well but need to recommit to maintenance objectives already laid out. 


Where does ballot measure 26-156 fit into Portland's needs? 

In my view replacing one group of elected officials with a different group of elected officials to oversee Portland's water system does nothing to prioritize routine and long-term maintenance of the ~$15 billion in assets at stake. It would impose a large switching cost as PWB becomes PPWD. 

Ballot Measure 26-156 did not come out of left field. It is a stems from a serious national issue, increasing water infrastructure and maintenance costs to deal with crumbling sewers and overdue EPA rules. 
Portland should be proud that our city has moved further than most other cities in dealing with these expensive issues. Rates have gone up but not without good reason. The debate over BM 26-156 is simply a distraction. With whatever energies we have to devote to water systems, we should recognize the challenge, be thankful that Portland's leaders have met the issues head-on over the past 15 years, and we should recommit to maintaining our water infrastructure. 

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Looking for a better way to get up out of bed Instead of getting on the internet and checking a new hit-me, GET UP!

I admit it... I'm on my iPhone, checking Fbook, before I even get out of bed in the morning.

For a while I felt shameful about this, that it was a dirty little secret.

Occasionally I would stumble across a quote, picture, or video which would imbue me with such Carpe Diem energy that I would literally leap out of bed to start my day.  Eventually I found that I was going on Fbook in the morning looking for that inspiration because, lets face it, sometimes it's tough to get out of bed in the morning.

This video was the most recent one to jolt me into the start of a day: Enjoy ; )
This is the first in a series of posts to give you something to get up out of bed with. They will be at 6am Eastern. I am deeply grateful to everyone who has helped me get up, your content brought me joy... and blog material. Thank You!

Quake: Expected Outcomes

In this edition of my 'Quake' series I'll discuss the likely effects of a Megathrust Earthquake on the Portland Metro Area. As a reminder I don't have any seismic-engineering credentials; I'm just a nerd obsessed with The Big One.

The coastal communities of Oregon will be subject to the strongest shaking and a swiftly following tsunami. They will be leveled. 

Portland is inland so there will be attenuated shaking, which makes our case harder to predict. There is a wide span that exists between Major Destruction and Minor Disruption. These are my prediction:

Lets start with the obvious: the many utility poles will topple or be taken out by falling trees, the power grid will be down... which means no cell phone service. There will be some water main breaks in areas of liquefaction and lots of breakages at the connections to individual buildings. Natural Gas supply lines will also suffer breaks, again most of them occurring where the feeder pipe reaches an individual building.

The combination of leaking natural gas and sparking electrical wires will undoubtably start fires across the city. The fire department's job will be complicated by the difficulty in moving through the debris-strewn streets, irregular water supply at hydrants, and the overwhelming nature of the disaster.

Structures:

Wooden Homes are statistically the safest in a quake, the wood can flex with the shaking and loading is usually low. As with all of these categories, outcomes will vary. Newer homes and those with only a single story will do best. Some wooden homes in Portland have been moved from where they were originally built, this was done frequently in the days before modern safety regulations made moves cost prohibitive. Many of these homes are simply sitting on a foundation created for them at the new site. Many will shake off of their foundations and fall into the basement or suffer partial collapse. Most wooden homes will remain at least partially inhabitable. Hardest hit will be wooden homes affected by ground subsidence, houses perched on the West Hills, Alameda Ridge and Mt. Tabor are particularly vulnerable. Some of the newer construction in Portland, such as Hawthorne Twenty-Six (All wood, 4 stories, hillside location) seems particularly likely to be uninhabitable after a major quake.    

Steel/High Rise Construction Most of the residential buildings of this type are newer construction. Glass windows might shake from their frames and crash to the streets below. None will collapse. 100-year old 1st generation steel buildings, 10 to 15 stories each will suffer the worst. Soil liquefaction will be a big threat downtown, which is built on sandy wash from the Willamette River. Older buildings could tilt dramatically and sink into the ground. Buildings in Lloyd Center will be comparatively unaffected.

Reinforced Concrete Structures will suffer brittle failure of the concrete at key joints but should hold together due to their steel reinforcements. Given the widespread use of this building material it is easy to imagine some small collapses due to either improper steel reinforcement linking during construction or corrosion of steel reinforcements exposed to Portland's humid climate through unrepaired cracks.  Most will be declared uninhabitable following the quake.


Unreinforced Masonry Structures These are the killers, the mortar simply cannot hold as the bricks or cinder blocks start shaking themselves apart. A few of these buildings have had expensive seismic retrofits. Most have not. Many are shops and warehouses. The SE Industrial District will suffer many collapses. Multi-story residential buildings present the greatest danger: The Ford Building at the corner of SE 11th and Division is chic, it will not be here after the quake
This cute apartment at 1405 SW Park is 3 stories, its right next to a modern building too, it could probably take advantage of this location in a seismic retrofit.
The beautiful 4-story Trinity Place Apartments in the Alphabet District have had a seismic-retrofit on the order of half a million dollars, for 36 units, thats ~$14,000 a unit for a dramatic safety improvement. Cheap insurance on a human life. The City has compiled a Listing of Unreinforced Masonry Buildings in Portland.  

Bridges, this city isn't called bridgetown for nothing. Perhaps the signature Willamette crossings, the Steel Bridge and the Hawthorne Bridge have huge counterweights suspended in towers. These will try to remain stationary as the bridge shakes back and forth during the quake, when the weights bang against the steel towers they will produce tremendous forces that will destroy the towers.  
The I-5 interstate bridge shares this vulnerability. The Burnside and Morrison Bridges have a chance at survival. The Freemont, Marquam and St. Johns bridges have the best chance for survival. The New Transit bridge designed with the most current seismic knowledge is likely to suffer the least.

However there is a weak link for all the bridges of the 20th century  --  the approach spans are concrete/steel truss sections which will shake off of their supports and fall.

I wouldn't want to be under this approach span to the Hawthorne Bridge during the quake.

This approach to The Morrison Bridge looks to be just as dangerous.  
The I-5 approaches to the Marquam Bridge have been retrofit with steel cables. They are designed to keep the steel road sections from collapsing even if they separate from their mounts.
Other I-5 connectors such as these flyovers where The Banfield Expressway meets I-5 appear not to have been retrofit and look like collapses waiting to happen.
Only the elevated sections of 99E appear safe. This newer construction has steel reinforcing ties between the deck and the support pylons that are surrounded by concrete.

Regardless of the extent of the actual damage all the bridges will be closed immediately following the quake so that engineers can assess their safety prior to reopening. Thus if you happen to be on the opposite side of the river from where you live, expect to be stuck... or swim for it... or wait to get on a boat. Impromptu ferry service is guaranteed to pop-up.